For the first time, we have managed to break down the black box of spending into different spending buckets and can tell you with great accuracy how our spending behavior will change in the future. Knowing more about spending behavior can lead to better investment and strategic decisions.
Based on our own spending and demographic data together with quarterly national accounts data we developed a model to forecast spending by category for four major economies - the US, Germany, France and the UK. In addition to historical data back to 2000, we have quarterly spending forecasts for around ten categories until 2032.
This year total consumer spending goes down significantly following the worldwide COVID-19 outbreak. For the US we estimate a decrease by one trillion USD in total, while spending for health is expected to go down by 335 billion USD. Food and beverages (i.e. home consumption) is going up, but eating out has gone down disproportionately - but will recover by 2022.