Age Modeling & Demographic Forecasting

Advancements in data science are rapidly creating a new field: spatial demography. In partnership with GeoVille and the European Space Agency, we have developed a new technique for predicting and forecasting the age structure of a population living in a given city block. By integrating earth observation data with sophisticated demographic techniques (including Bayesian Model Averaging), we have pioneered a new product called DemographEye.

How it works

With funding from the European Space Agency (ESA), we have developed an algorithm for forecasting the number of people by age group on the city-block level (50×50 meter grids). As input data, we use a combination of census data, information from OpenStreetMap, and satellite imagery. Combining these sources in a Bayesian model averaging approach allows us to obtain reasonable grid-level estimates.

Urban Planning

With rising concerns about an increasing population and environmental quality, switching to public transportation is becoming a priority in metropolitan cities. To this extent, placing bus and metro stations in the right spots is essential. 

DemographEye shows that people aged 18 to 64 will be the most concentrated in the northern and central part of East and North East Delhi in 2030. 

Especially the central part around the border between East and North East Delhi could be the optimal area for an expansion of the public transport network.