For the first time, we have managed to break down the black box of spending into different spending buckets and can tell you with great accuracy how our spending behavior will change in the future. Knowing more about spending behavior can lead to better investment and strategic decisions.
Based on our own spending and demographic data together with quarterly national accounts data we developed a model to forecast spending by category for four major economies - the US, Germany, France and the UK. In addition to historical data back to 2000, we have quarterly spending forecasts for around ten categories until 2032.
This year total consumer spending goes down significantly following the worldwide COVID-19 outbreak. For the US we estimate a decrease by one trillion USD in total, while spending for health is expected to go down by 335 billion USD. Food and beverages (i.e. home consumption) is going up, but eating out has gone down disproportionately - but will recover by 2022.
Where is the momentum in consumer spending?
China is the largest middle class market globally with over 900 million people today and reaching around 1.2 billion people with a growth rate of 5.9% until 2030.
A COVID-19 bump in the road to a middle-class world.
In 2020, for the first time in half a century, the global consumer class will shrink. Our models estimate that the global consumer class will still reach 5 billion people by 2027.
The United States is the world's largest economy and also the world’s largest consumer market. In 2020, American residents will spend around $12.5 trillion on durable and nondurable goods and services.
Which sectors will recover the fastest?
How has COVID-19 impacted the consumer rich?
More than half of the world’s rich live in the USA (119 million out of 225 million people). They make up the largest consumer spending group in the world, spending 8 trillion dollars per year.
Will the luxury market recover in 2021?