Advancements in data science are rapidly creating a new field: spatial demography. In partnership with GeoVille and the European Space Agency, we have developed a new technique for predicting and forecasting the age structure of a population living in a given city block. By integrating earth observation data with sophisticated demographic techniques (including Bayesian Model Averaging), we have pioneered a new product called DemographEye.
With funding from the European Space Agency (ESA), we have developed an algorithm for forecasting the number of people by age group on the city-block level (50x50 meter grids). As input data, we use a combination of census data, information from OpenStreetMap, and satellite imagery. Combining these sources in a Bayesian model averaging approach allows us to obtain reasonable grid-level estimates.
DemographEye offers two types of services: Fully Automated Services and Bespoke Services.
For the Explorer and Target products, our Fully Automated Services offer an Application Program Interface (API) with a pay-by-demand subscription that allows for direct purchase. For the Precision product DemographEye offers the Bespoke service, which allows users to select specific cities or even neighborhood level needs followed by a customized quote.
With rising concerns about an increasing population and environmental quality, switching to public transportation is becoming a priority in metropolitan cities. To this extent, placing bus and metro stations in the right spots is essential. DemographEye shows that people aged 18 to 64 will be most concentrated in the northern and central part of East and North East Delhi in 2030. Especially the central part around the border between East and North East Delhi could be the optimal area for an expansion of the public transport network.
For the upcoming 5G rollout, people aged between 16 to 30 years are considered the main target group because of their interest in new technologies. We offer detailed maps of this group’s current and future living spaces, allowing us to pinpoint the city blocks that will be central to reach this group. As an example, focusing on the London Borough of Camden we can see that the south-eastern part will be the one with the highest density of young adults in the coming years.
In Costa Rica, roughly 98% of the country’s electricity is generated from renewable sources, specifically from wind and solar. In collaboration with SAP and a local energy provider, we predicted future evolution of energy consumption in the country. DemographEye, with its capability to deliver population density forecasts at a very granular level for up to 30 years, was ingested in the planning model in order to quantitatively predict if existing investments can serve future regional energy demands.
In a time where smart and digital solutions are crucial for fast-developing cities, DemographEye provides the right insights for modern and knowledge-based city administrations. Together with the City of Leipzig, we predicted age structures and education levels to foster the city administration’s data-driven planning and decision-making capabilities. The forecasts up to 2030 allow for smart urban development and the inclusion of education levels enables planning with a particular focus on the future needs of younger inhabitants.
DemographEye allows for the deployment of healthcare services such as pharmacies and the public sector, based on age-specific needs. The pandemic which has affected elderly people at an increasing rate compared to other age groups currently proves the importance of sufficient medical coverage in specific living areas.
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