What is your methodology?

Academic basis of our approach: The methodology is broadly similar to the approach outlined in the following academic paper in Nature.

What are your data sources?

Main input sources include:

  • World Development indicators (World Bank)
  • Poverty Equity Database (World Bank)
  • World Economic Outlook (IMF)
  • Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (IIASA, OECD)
  • United Nations population projections
  • PovcalNet (World Bank)
  • National Statistic offices

How do you compensate for gaps in the various data sources?

For each type of “gap” we apply a unique and tailored approach. Any informational gaps in distributional data (sources from Povcal, UNU-WIDER, and Poverty Equity) is imputed by finding countries that are similar along the dimensions of GDP, age structure, sectoral employment and education structure.

How often do you update your forecasts?

Twice per year, once in November and once in May. These updates are aligned with the biannual release of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Throughout the year we update parts of the data as updates become available.

Does the data change that much from update to update?

It varies from update to update, and country to country.

What countries do you have data for?

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